These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,227 adults surveyed online between June 14 and 21, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
The Tea Party
Tea Party support continues to hold steady with just under two in five Americans (37%) supporting the Tea Party Movement and three in ten (31%) opposing it. In May, 38% of Americans said they were Tea Party supporters while 30% were opposed to the movement. Most of this support is coming from Republicans (69% support the movement) followed by Independents (43%), while over half of Democrats (56%) oppose it.
While over one-third of Americans may be supporters of the Tea Party movement, this does not mean they all consider themselves members of the Party. Just 8% actually would describe themselves as a member of the Tea Party while 77% would not. In May, 10% of Americans said they were Tea Party members.
The 2010 Congressional Election
Looking ahead to November, it is potentially a close race. If the election for Congress were being held today and only a Democrat and a Republican were running, just over one-third (34%) of U.S. adults would vote for the Democratic candidate while three in ten (30%) would vote for the Republican candidate. In May, 35% said they would vote for the Democrat and 28% would vote for the Republican, so this gap is narrowing.
However, it would be better news for the Democrats if a Tea Party candidate enters the race. Just over one-third (34%) of Americans would still vote for the Democrat, but 18% would vote for the Republican candidate and 14% would for the Tea Party candidate.
So What?
While four months can be a lifetime in politics, the reality is it is just about 18 weeks until the elections in November. In that time, each party has to convince voters to vote for their candidate and not for the other one. But, in those 18 weeks, there are a lot of outside events that can occur which cannot be predicted. There is always that "October surprise" which can shift an election. The way this year is going do not be surprised if there are surprises in July, August and September, as well.