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CEO Confidence in Main Street Businesses and U.S. Economy Slides to All-Time Low
added: 2008-12-15

In Q4 2008, CEO confidence in the U.S. economy fell to an unprecedented low of 48.7 points, down 23.7 points from the third quarter, the largest quarterly drop in the Vistage CEO Confidence Index’s five-year history. Notably, of the 2,497 Main Street CEOs who responded, more chief executives than ever expressed reduced confidence in their own businesses.

"The escalating credit crisis, deepening recession and resulting financial stress is darkening the outlook of nearly all CEOs," said Richard Curtin, Ph.D., a consultant for the Vistage Confidence Index and director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. "This is the first time in nearly five years that a majority of CEOs do not anticipate higher revenues during the year ahead. Declines in revenues are anticipated by 35 percent of all CEOs, twice the amount recorded three months ago and three times the level recorded a year ago."

To help their businesses survive and succeed during the economic downturn, Main Street CEOs are reducing their own salaries and refocusing their priorities. Fifty percent of CEOs are taking a personal pay cut to help their companies get through hard times. Of those who are taking pay cuts, 28 percent plan to give up more than a quarter of their salaries and 12 percent more than half. Forty percent of CEOs plan to become more personally involved in the business, particularly in sales, in 2009.

"The pervasive bad news about the economy has caught up with our own Vistage members, who now forecast lower revenues and profits for their businesses," said Rafael Pastor, chairman of the board and CEO of Vistage International, an executive performance company. "The drop in consumer spending and the lack of credit are having a severe impact on the outlook of small and medium-sized businesses. CEOs are making their own business sacrifices and cite loosening of credit and an economic stimulus package as the top priorities for the incoming Obama administration."

Main Street Business Confidence

Forty percent of CEOs surveyed said the level of confidence they have in their own businesses for 2009 is less than in 2008. Thirty-five per cent pointed to declining sales revenues (while 28 percent said revenues will stay the same). Thirty-six percent said they expect profitability to worsen in 2009 (31 percent said it will stay the same). These findings represent the sharpest decline in CEOs’ expectations for sales revenues and profitability in the five-year history of the Index.

Economic Recovery

Three-in-five CEOs expect the economy to continue to worsen in the year ahead, twice as many as in the previous quarter. Only 10 percent of firms expect the economy to improve during 2009, while 61 percent do not expect a recovery to happen until 2010, and 28 percent in 2011 or later.

"Despite sagging executive confidence, CEOs are turning to Vistage for advice more now than ever before with Vistage CEO member inflow up nearly 13% since 2007," said Pastor.

New Administration

When asked about their confidence in the Obama administration’s ability to improve the economy, 15 percent expressed a high level of confidence, 34 percent said medium, and 32 percent said low. Nineteen percent said their confidence was no more or less than it would be for any other incoming president. Nearly one third (31 percent) said increasing the availability of credit is one of the most important issues for small and mid-size businesses.

Hiring and Layoffs

One-third of all CEOs reported lay-offs in their companies in the past year, and an additional 32 percent anticipated fewer total employees by this time in 2009. While this is by far the worst job outlook since the introduction of the national index in 2003, more than a quarter of Main Street CEOS (27 percent) said they still intend to hire new employees in 2009.

Tempered Investment Spending

Forty-four percent of all CEOs planned to decrease investments, twice as many as planned to do so in the third quarter, and four times the level recorded from 2003 to 2007.


Source: Business Wire

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