The fundamentals in commercial real estate remain healthy with only slight increases in vacancy rates expected for the office and industrial sectors during 2008, although credit restrictions have recently slowed overall investment activity, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK of the National Association of Realtors.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said commercial fundamentals are essentially sound. "Although vacancy rates remain relatively low for all sectors, they are expected to rise slightly in the office and industrial markets during the coming year because much of the space being absorbed is in high-quality buildings or is built-to-suit," he said. "As a result, there is a fair amount of older space on the market, particularly in the industrial sector where obsolescence is a factor, although industrial rents are showing healthy gains. Vacancy rates in the retail and multifamily sectors are projected to tighten in 2008 with rents rising in all sectors."

Yun said the credit crunch has been impacting the market over the last few months, but 2007 is already a record for commercial real estate investment. "Tighter credit conditions will limit individual commercial real estate investment deals moving forward," he said. "Because capitalization rates are already very low, it is likely that commercial property prices will ease. The era of rapid commercial property price increases has ended."

A record $325.0 billion was invested in commercial real estate in the first 10 months of 2007, up from $306.8 billion for all of 2006; that total does not include transactions valued at less than $5 million or investments in the hospitality sector, based on analysis of data from Real Capital Analytics.

Patricia Nooney of Saint Louis, chair of the Realtors Commercial Alliance, said commercial real estate investment is expected to stay historically strong. "Even with the credit crunch there's been no significant impact on institutional investors, and it's unrealistic to set new records every year in a cyclical business," she said. "There's been a shift in investment activity to foreign buyers, who are taking advantage of the dollar's decline relative to other currencies. With many areas showing favorable fundamentals, commercial property in the U.S. has become very attractive to foreign investors."