The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose for the fourth consecutive month to 31.8, an increase from 29 in May and up more than nine points from its all-time low of 22.2 in November of last year.

Dow Jones Newswires "Money Talks" columnist Alen Mattich said that although the indicator has yet to show the kind of sharp jump that has signaled the end to previous recessions, its slow but steady crawl upwards is a positive sign.

"Although the indicator remains firmly in recessionary territory, a continuation of this trend would point to a return to economic growth by the fourth quarter of this year," Mattich said.

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator aims to predict the health of the U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S. It uses a numerical scale from 0 to 100 to express the balance of sentiment in articles about the economy. The ESI represents one of the most comprehensive and far-reaching examinations of media coverage as an economic indicator. The ESI's back-testing to 1990 shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other indicators.

Unlike some other indicators where 50 is a clear break-point between recession and recovery, the ESI needs to be read with reference to longer trends. Based on the ESI's performance since 1990, previous recoveries have been marked by substantial month-to-month gains, with a jump of three points seeming to be a sign of significant improvement. A drop below 50 marks the point at which there is a clear risk of a slowdown.