PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth in June, in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The five industries reporting contraction in June are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “We continue to see inflation, though at a reduced rate [compared] to earlier months.” (Chemical Products)
- “Slight slowdown in overall business in both domestic and international markets, although still above 2010 at the same time.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- “The earthquake and related issues in Japan have caused shortages of some automotive equipment, negatively impacting global automotive production.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Sales continue to be stronger than expected across both retail and industrial channels. Material costs are definitely rising and will force increases to end-use customers.” (Paper Products)
- “High commodity prices continue to be worrisome.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Business is still up and down, with no real upside potential for us until the housing market rebounds.” (Furniture & Related Products)
- “Customers are still being cautious with their buying. Certain plastics and metal prices continue to rise.” (Machinery)
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (10); Castings; Caustic Soda (4); Copper(b) (11); Copper Based Products(b) (8); Corn; Natural Gas; Packaging Materials (2); Plastic Products (6); Plastics (6); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (6); Resins (4); Rubber Products (5); Soybean Oil; Steel(b) (10); Steel Products (7); Steel Tube; and Titanium Dioxide (3).
Commodities Down in Price
Copper(b) (2); Copper Based Products(b); Nickel; Stainless Steel; and Steel(b) (2).
Commodities in Short Supply
Capacitors; Electric/Electronic Components (6); and Rubber Products (2).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
(b) Reported as both up and down in price.
JUNE 2011 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
PMI
Manufacturing continued its growth in June as the PMI registered 55.3 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points when compared to May’s reading of 53.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 25th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 23rd consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through June (58.8 percent) corresponds to a 5.7 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for June (55.3 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.5 percent increase in real GDP annually.”
New Orders
ISM’s New Orders Index registered 51.6 percent in June, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the 51 percent reported in May. This is the 24th consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The 10 industries reporting growth in new orders in June — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting decreases in new orders in June - listed in order - are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.
Production
ISM’s Production Index registered 54.5 percent in June, which is an increase of 0.5 percentage point when compared to the May reading of 54 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures. This is the 25th consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.
The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of June — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in June are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Five industries reported no change in production in June compared to May.
Employment
ISM’s Employment Index registered 59.9 percent in June, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the 58.2 percent reported in May. This is the 21st consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth in employment in June in the following order: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Paper Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in employment in June is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. Six industries reported no change in employment in June compared to May.
Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in June as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.3 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point higher than the 55.7 percent registered in May. This is the 25th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The eight industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in June — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The only industry reporting faster deliveries in June is Primary Metals. Nine industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in June compared to May.
Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 54.1 percent in June, 5.4 percentage points higher than the 48.7 percent reported in May. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
The six industries reporting higher inventories in June — listed in order — are: Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The five industries reporting decreases in inventories in June are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Transportation Equipment. Seven industries reported no change in inventories in June compared to May.
Customers’ Inventories(c)
The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 47 percent in June, 7.5 percentage points higher than in May when the index registered 39.5 percent. This is the 27th consecutive month the Customers’ Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe their customers’ inventories are too low at this time.
The four manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during June are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during June — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. Six industries reported no change in customers’ inventories for the month of June compared to May.
Prices(c)
The ISM Prices Index registered 68 percent in June, 8.5 percentage points lower than the 76.5 percent reported in May. This is the second consecutive month the Prices Index has registered below 80 percent since December 2010, and is the 24th consecutive month the index has registered above 50 percent. While 48 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 12 percent reported paying lower prices, 40 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in May. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 report paying increased prices during the month of June, in the following order: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment. The two manufacturing industries reporting paying lower prices on average in June are: Primary Metals and Fabricated Metal Products.
Backlog of Orders(c)
ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 49 percent in June, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 50.5 percent reported in May. Of the 84 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 24 percent reported greater backlogs, 26 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 50 percent reported no change from May.
The seven industries reporting increased order backlogs in June — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The eight industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during June — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Primary Metals.
New Export Orders(c)
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 53.5 percent in June, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 55 percent reported in May. This is the 24th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.
The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in June are: Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders during June are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. Eight industries reported no change in exports in June compared to May.
Imports(c)
Imports of materials by manufacturers continued to expand in June as the Imports Index registered 51 percent, 3.5 percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent reported in May. This is the 22nd consecutive month of growth in imports.
The four industries reporting growth in imports during the month of June are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports during June are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Ten industries reported no change in imports in June compared to May.
Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased 1 day to 103 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased 7 days to 54 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 4 days to 24 days.
