February Findings:
- 51 percent of owners say they plan to decrease spending on business development over the next six months, up from 46 percent in January; as 21 percent plan an increase; 25 percent see no change; and 3 percent aren’t sure.
- 19 percent of owners see conditions for their businesses improving, up from 17 percent who felt the same in January; while 54 percent see conditions getting worse, also an increase from January; 22 percent say conditions are the same; and 6 percent aren’t sure.
- 64 percent rate the economy as poor this month, up from 61 percent in January; 26 percent rate it fair and 10 percent rate it excellent or good.
- 12 percent feel the economic conditions in the U.S. are getting better, up from 8 percent in January. The number of owners who believe the U.S. economy is getting worse remains unchanged from January at 69 percent; as 14 percent see it staying the same; and 5 percent aren’t sure.
- The number of owners who say they have experienced temporary cash flow issues in the past 90 days rose to 42 percent in February, up from 38 percent in January.
- This month’s Watch also indicates that experience makes a difference in the economic confidence of small business owners. The Watch’s confidence index for owners who have only been in business for the last two years is a dismal 50.5 in February, compared to those who have been in business six to 10 years, whose confidence score is 84.8.
Little Help Expected from Federal Relief Efforts
When asked about the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 70 percent of small business owners say they are not aware of any provisions in the package that could help their businesses; 16 percent aren’t sure; and only 14 percent said they were aware of elements that could help their businesses.
"It's still early to sort out the details of the package, but indications are that small business owners aren't expecting much help," Scully said.
For example, 59 percent of owners say it is not very likely or not likely at all that their businesses will benefit from the new stimulus package; 30 percent said it was somewhat likely or very likely they would see some direct benefit. Six percent weren’t sure.
Most small business owners also expressed doubts that Congress could create any stimulus package that would pull the country out of recession: 58 percent were not very or not at all confident of such an outcome; 40 percent were somewhat or very confident; and 2 percent weren’t sure.
When asked more specifically how confident they are that Congress and the federal government can address the needs of small business owners, 62 percent answered not at all or not very confident; 36 percent are somewhat or very confident; and 2 percent aren’t sure.
What’s More Helpful: Tax Cuts or Easing Credit?
When given the choice between tax cuts or easing of credit for doing more for the health of America’s small business economy, 48 percent of small business owners chose tax cuts, while 35 percent opted for easing credit and 17 percent didn’t have an opinion.
Small Business Customers Are Noticing Changes
Sixty-nine percent of consumers polled in February said they had noticed effects such as higher prices or service changes at the small businesses they frequent that are the result of the economy. Twenty percent haven’t noticed any changes and 11 percent couldn’t say.
When consumers were asked about their patronage of small businesses over the past six months, 10 percent say it has increased; 33 percent say it has decreased; 53 percent say it’s the same; and 4 percent aren’t sure.
Few Small Business Owners Seek SBA Loans
While the Small Business Administration reports that it will receive $630 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act for loan programs and loan fee reductions, most small businesses would not seem to be interested.
When asked if they had ever applied for an SBA loan, 90 percent of owners said no.
If SBA loans became easier to get, 58 percent of small business owners say it is not very likely or not likely at all that they would apply; 40 percent said it was very likely or somewhat likely that they would apply; and 2 percent were unsure.
Not Ready to Quit
Sixty percent of small business owners say it is not at all or not very likely they will have to close their businesses because of the nation’s current economic problems; 22 percent said it was somewhat likely and 14 percent said it was very likely they would have to close their doors because of the economy. Four percent weren’t sure.
