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Fitch: U.S. Finance and Leasing Outlook 2009
added: 2008-12-26

In a recently published report, Fitch Ratings says the 2009 outlook for the U.S. Finance and Leasing sector remains negative and incorporates negative rating outlooks for both the consumer and the commercial finance segments. Fitch expects companies within the sector will face difficult business conditions and operating performance will weaken further in 2009. The risks of market illiquidity will continue to cast a broad negative shadow until capital market conditions stabilize and companies are able to raise debt and equity capital on a cost effective basis.

The risks of market illiquidity will continue to cast a broad negative shadow until capital market conditions stabilize and companies are able to raise debt and equity capital on a cost effective basis.

To better withstand the ongoing financial pressures, companies within this universe are seeking to take full advantage of various governmental relief programs. Those entities that conceivably could operate under a bank holding company umbrella are pursuing the governmental relief option. Fitch believes access to deposit funding has become a key differentiator for finance companies because it has remained a cost effective and stable funding source compared to capital market borrowings.

Summary of Sector Outlooks:

- Consumer Finance: Fitch's outlook for consumer lending is negative. Once a resilient force driving the economy, the U.S. consumer will be largely absent in 2009, significantly impacting the profitability for all consumer-oriented finance companies. With the housing market still in decline and Fitch's belief that unemployment could reach 8.3 percent, credit losses will rise above historical peaks and overall demand for credit will be extremely weak. Fitch expects consumer spending to fall by 1.6% in 2009, as consumers struggle to improve their balance sheets. The consumer finance sector includes credit card companies, student loan companies and auto finance companies.

- Commercial Finance and Leasing: Fitch's rating outlook for the U.S. Commercial finance and leasing sector for 2009 is negative. Prospects for business investment have deteriorated sharply as business confidence and orders have declined and lenders have tightened borrowing criteria. Unlike last year, the benefits realized from export growth will not be sustained as economic conditions throughout the world have weakened. Recovery of the U.S. housing sector is not likely to begin until 2010. Consequently, investment spending, a key indicator of sector performance, is projected to decline sharply. Fitch expects business investment in the U.S. to fall approximately 6% in 2009. The commercial finance and leasing sector includes aircraft finance companies, equipment finance companies, fleet leasing companies and business development companies.


Source: www.fitchratings.com

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