"July is typically a slow month in terms of labor demand, but this month advertised vacancies were weaker than we would expect," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "There is little evidence of any approaching turning point in labor demand. Changes in the volume of job advertising typically lead employment trends, and considering the declines in advertised vacancies for all of 2008, the outlook for the labor market remains gloomy — exactly the sentiment weighing on consumer attitudes."
THE NATIONAL - REGIONAL PICTURE
In July, 2,708,000 of the 3,864,100 unduplicated online advertised vacancies were new ads that did not appear in June, while the rest were reposted ads from the previous month. In July - a month expected to show a seasonal decrease in labor demand - the number of total online advertised vacancies fell by 330,800 or 7.9 percent from June's revised number, and new ads fell by 332,300 or 10.9 percent. The June - July decline was greater than the expected seasonal decline. The fragility of the labor market is reinforced in the July year-over-year numbers for labor demand, where total ads fell 5.4 percent. New ads increased by 3.8 percent over the July 2007 level.
The monthly national decrease in advertised vacancies between June and July 2008 reflected declines in ads in all nine Census regions. Online advertised vacancies in six of the nine Census regions were below last year's July levels. The six regions with over-the-year declines were the New England, Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, East North Central, Mountain, and Pacific regions.
STATE HIGHLIGHTS
States where job seekers are continuing to see a large number of advertised vacancies include Alaska, Delaware, and Colorado. Alaska posted 4.99 online advertised vacancies for every 100 persons in the state labor force, the highest rate in the nation. Alaska has held the number-one position for almost a year. Delaware (4.08) and Colorado (4.02) both had over 4 advertised vacancies for every 100 persons in the labor force. Over half of the top 10 states with the highest ads rate are west of the Mississippi, and in addition to Alaska and Colorado include Nevada (3.79), Wyoming (3.78), Washington (3.74), and Montana (3.57). The remaining four states are along the Eastern seaboard and in addition to Delaware include Massachusetts (3.85), Maryland (3.80), and Virginia (3.53).
Online advertised vacancies in California, the state with the largest labor force in the nation, totaled 518,500 in July. The ad volume in California dropped by around 144,000 ads, 22 percent below the July 2007 level. The volume of online advertised vacancies in Texas (347,000) was up 0.4 percent, and ads in New York (261,500) were down 4 percent from year ago levels.
"Although one cannot infer that the occupation or geographic location of unemployed persons matches the occupation or geographic location of the vacancies, looking at the number of unemployed in relation to the number of advertised vacancies provides an indication of available job opportunities for the unemployed," said Levanon. Using the latest unemployment data available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS June data) and computing the supply/demand ratio (unemployed/advertised vacancies), the state with the most favorable (e.g., lowest) supply/demand rates was Wyoming at 0.84. The runner-up state is Nebraska (1.02), in third place is Utah (1.03), with South Dakota (1.04) and Idaho (1.06) rounding out the top five. In June 2008, only one state, Wyoming, had a supply/demand rate less than 1.0. This is well below May when 5 states had a supply/demand rate less than 1.0 and significantly below the peak of 11 states with a supply/demand rate less than 1.0 reached in July 2007. For the nation as a whole, the comparable supply/demand rate for June 2008 was 2.1, indicating that for every two unemployed people looking for work there was only one online advertised vacancy.
States where the number of unemployed persons looking for work significantly exceeded the number of online advertised vacancies included Tennessee (3.1), Indiana (3.3), Kentucky (3.5), Michigan (4.8), and Mississippi (5.9).
OCCUPATIONAL FOCUS
"Many jobs in high demand are also, on average, among the highest paying occupations," said Levanon. Healthcare practitioners (527,200) and Computer and Mathematical (510,600) are the two occupations with the most number of ads posted online. According to the latest federal hourly wage data, wages average about $31 for healthcare practitioners and $34 an hour for computer and mathematical specialists. Also in high demand are occupations in management (474,200), office and administrative support (441,400), and sales (338,900).
METRO AREA HIGHLIGHTS
In July, 40 of the 52 metro areas for which data is reported separately posted a smaller number of advertised vacancies than last year. This is a slight deterioration from last month when 43 of the 52 metro areas posted a smaller number of advertised vacancies than last year. The deterioration in the job market in some of the nation's largest metro areas is further reflected in comparing the number of unemployed to the number of advertised vacancies. Since July 2007, the number of metro areas with a supply/demand rate of less than one has fallen from 23 areas to just 12 areas. The top five areas where the number of online advertised vacancies exceeds the number of unemployed include Austin (0.58), Salt Lake City (0.63), Washington D.C. (0.68), Milwaukee (0.72), and New Orleans (0.81).
The top metro areas in July as measured by most advertised vacancies per 100 persons in the local labor force included Milwaukee (5.63), Austin (5.51), San Jose (5.26), Washington D.C. (5.00), and San Francisco (4.96).
