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Gallup's Consumer Confidence Measure Negative
added: 2008-04-11

Gallup's measure of Americans'positive economic mood stands at a gloomy 29.2 in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing from April 1-8, 2008, similar to the 29.0 reading for all of March. The measure - reflecting Americans' positive perceptions of the U.S. economy - was 37.1 in February and 43.2 in January.

This measure is one way to summarize Gallup's daily tracking of the public's economic mood, which relies on two questions about the U.S. economy: 1) rating current economic conditions and 2) perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or worse. It indicates that the downward trend in consumer attitudes since January has leveled off (albeit at very negative levels).

The overall consumer mood rating is based on the sum of the positive answers to these two economic questions. The rating has a maximum possible score of 200 (under the ideal conditions that 100% of Americans rate the economy "excellent" or "good" and, separately, that 100% say it is "getting better"). The highest recorded score in Gallup trends for these positive measures since the component questions were established in 1992 is 140 in January 2000.

There has been a generally strong correspondence between the direction of Gallup's economic mood measure and the monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. Thus, given the results of Gallup's roughly 4,000 interviews conducted thus far in April, it would be unusual if the preliminary April consumer sentiment figures being released to Reuters/University of Michigan subscribers on Friday, April 11, show either a major improvement or a deterioration in consumer attitudes since March.

Since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Jan. 2, 2008, Gallup has released daily updates on consumer confidence based on three-day
rolling averages. The averages reported for January through April obscure some important shifts that are evident in the detailed trend. Among these are the findings that consumer confidence fell sharply for the first three weeks of January, after which it regained nearly half its losses in the last week of January. Confidence slid again at the beginning of February, but then held steady through the remainder of the month, only to descend in the first half of March to the lowest level seen for the year. Confidence again rebounded somewhat toward the end of March and remained at that slightly improved level through early April.


Source: PR Newswire

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