- Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in net immigration of 1.25 million.
- If immigration continues at current levels, the nation's population will increase from 301 million today to 468 million in 2060 - a 167 million (or 56 percent) increase. Future immigrants plus their descendents will account for 105 million (or 63 percent) of the increase.
- The total projected growth of 167 million is equal to the combined populations of Great Britain, France, and Spain. The 105 million from immigration by itself is equal to 13 additional New York Cities.
- If the annual level of net immigration was reduced to 300,000, future immigration would add 25 million people to the population by 2060 - 80 million fewer than the current level would add.
- The above projection follows exactly the Census Bureau's assumptions about future birth and death rates, including a decline in the birth rate for Hispanics, who comprise the largest share of immigrants.
- Net immigration has been increasing for five decades; if that trend continues, the increase caused by immigration will be higher than the projected 105 million.
- While immigration has a very large impact on the size of the nation's population, it has only a small effect in slowing the aging of American society.
- At the current level of net immigration (1.25 million a year), 61 percent of the nation's population will be of working age (15 to 66) in 2060, compared to 60 percent if net immigration were reduced to 300,000 a year.
- If net immigration was doubled to 2.5 million a year it would raise the working-age share of the population by one additional percentage point, to 62 percent, by 2060. But that level of immigration would create a U.S. population of 573 million, double its size in the 2000 Census.
Policy Discussion: The findings of this study make clear that the debate over immigration should not be whether it makes for a much larger population - without question it does. Consistent with the findings of the Census Bureau, these projections also show that the debate over immigration should not be whether it has a large impact on the aging of society - without question it does not.
The central question this study raises and that Americans must answer is what costs and benefits come with having a much larger population and a more densely settled country. Some see a deteriorating quality of life with a larger population, including its impact on such things as pollution, congestion, loss of open spaces, and sprawl. Others may feel that a much larger population will create more opportunities for businesses, workers, and consumers. These projections do not resolve those questions. What the projections do tell us is where we are headed as a country. The question for the nation is: Do we wish to go there?
