Search advertising will retain its number 1 position as the advertising format garnering the most ad spend. However, even though absolute spending on search advertising will continue to increase, its market share will slowly decline from 40% in 2006 to 32% in 2011 as video advertising grows. This decline poses a strategic challenge to Google, the market leader in search advertising, since more than 99% of its income stems from this type of ad.
As broadband penetration has increased and consumers' Internet connections allow for the download of data intensive graphics and video, advertisers' spend on rich media ads (which include broadband video commercials) has been steadily increasing. IDC believes that with the expected breakthrough for video consumption and video ads, this market share will grow fast. The future of Internet advertising and of Google, Yahoo!, and the other players depends on how fast video ads will grow and how well the media companies will be able to capitalize on it.
"Broadband video commercials will experience their breakthrough in the coming years. This will create tremendous opportunities, but also threats, for old and new media companies. At the same time, search advertising will lose market share, which may pose a strategic challenge for Google, the Internet advertising market leader," said Karsten Weide, program director, Digital Marketplace: New Media and Entertainment at IDC.