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More Than Half of Executives Expect Recession to Continue Into 2011
added: 2009-01-22

With the Obama administration and new Congress taking office in late January, a recent Deloitte online survey of more than 1,445 finance executives showed that 58.4 percent expect the current recession to continue for two to three more years.

"Given the dollar amount of stimulus funds currently being pumped into the banking system, we are more likely to experience a faster recovery than the survey results suggest and could come as soon as late 2009," said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research. "For our economy to recover, it is imperative that our banking system is restored to health and balance sheets are stabilized."

Respondents also expect it to take at least one year (45.1 percent) - if not two to three years (42.9 percent) - for liquidity in the credit markets to increase.

When asked about government bailouts, nearly two-thirds (63.9 percent) of executives surveyed do not support the government's bailout of struggling industries beyond the financial and auto industries if needed. Additionally, nearly one-third (32.2 percent) of executives responded that they expect a "very active" level of government regulatory and enforcement activity in their industry during the next five years.

"The new administration will take office at a critical time in our nation's history, likely enacting regulatory change which will lead to the biggest legal and regulatory enforcement swings we've seen since President Reagan succeeded President Carter," said David Williams, CEO of Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP.

Williams believes President-elect Obama's activity will have a significant impact on transactions. "Although other forces will certainly play a role in shaping how active a transactions market we will have, economic growth and the government's role will be the most influential in the next three to five years."

"The economy itself is changing and will be very different going forward," said Williams. "The financial services industry, for one, will be transformed under the Obama administration, looking nothing like what we've grown accustomed to. Additionally, while we will continue to see mergers and deals taking place, until the capital markets recover they will tend to be smaller, strategic and done with cash or equity. Capital availability is also impacting bankruptcy transactions and as a result, we are seeing a lot of companies liquidate rather than restructure."

More than 1,445 executives from the banking, securities, financial services and technology industries, among others, responded to the survey questions during the December webcast, titled "The Election Is Over: Where Do We Go from Here."


Source: PR Newswire

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