"May shows a slight recovery from the large April decline, but overall the number of online advertised vacancies has been on a downward trend for the past several months. The demand for labor will likely be sluggish this summer," said Gad Levanon, economist at The Conference Board. "This lackluster job outlook is clearly a contributing factor in consumer confidence shrinking to its lowest point in nearly two decades, as reported by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey."
In May, 2,743,700 of the 3,795,400 unduplicated online advertised vacancies were new ads that did not appear in April, while the remainder are reposted ads from the previous month. In May, a month expected to show a seasonal increase in labor demand, the number of total online advertised vacancies increased by 145,500 or 4 percent while new ads rose by 152,200 or 6 percent from April. However, the vulnerable labor demand is clear in the May year-over-year numbers where total ads fell 13.2 percent and new ads fell 2.5 percent.
The monthly national increase in advertised vacancies between April and May '08 reflected marginal increases in ads in all nine Census regions. However, online advertised vacancies in each of the nine Census regions were below last year's May levels.
The number of advertised vacancies declined from May 2007 to May 2008 in 43 states (compared to 44 states in April 2008), and all the states experienced a slowing in the year-over-year growth rate. The April employment data released by the BLS indicates that 43 of the 50 states also experienced a slowing in their year-over-year growth rate of employment.
States where job seekers are continuing to see a large number of advertised vacancies include Alaska, Nevada and Colorado. Alaska posted 4.98 online advertised vacancies for every 100 persons in the state labor force, the highest rate in the nation. Alaska has held the number one position for nine months in a row. Nevada (4.17) and Colorado (4.14) were close behind in the number of advertised vacancies when adjusted for the size of the state labor force. Half of the top 10 states with the highest ads rate are west of the Mississippi and in addition to Alaska, Nevada and Colorado, include Arizona (3.74) and Washington (3.57). The remaining states were on the East Coast and include Delaware (3.90), Massachusetts (3.89), Maryland (3.77), Vermont (3.75) and Connecticut (3.55).
Online advertised vacancies in California, the state with the largest labor force in the nation, totaled 505,700 in May. The ad volume in California dropped by nearly 200,000 ads, 28 percent below the May 2007 level. The volume of online advertised vacancies in Texas (319,600) was down 13 percent and ads in New York (264,800) were down 16 percent from year ago levels.
"Although one cannot infer that the occupation or geographic location of unemployed persons matches the occupation or geographic location of the vacancies, looking at the number of unemployed in relation to the number of advertised vacancies provides an indication of available job opportunities for the unemployed," said Levanon. Using the latest unemployment data available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (April data) and computing the supply/demand ratio (unemployed/advertised vacancies), the states with the most favorable (e.g., lowest) supply/demand rates included Wyoming (0.85), Maryland (0.94), Delaware (0.95), Massachusetts (0.99) and Utah (0.99). One bright spot this month was the improvement in the supply/demand rate; there were five states where the number of advertised vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed (e.g., a supply/demand rate less than 1.0). This is an improvement from last month when only two states had a supply/demand rate less than 1.0, yet still below the peak of 11 states with a supply/demand rate less than 1.0 in July 2007. For the nation as a whole, the comparable supply/demand rate for April was 2.0, indicating that for every two unemployed people looking for work there was only one online advertised vacancy.
States where the number of unemployed persons looking for work significantly exceeded the number of online advertised vacancies included Tennessee (2.68), Indiana (2.87), Kentucky (3.29), Michigan (4.04), and Mississippi (4.67).
"Many jobs in high demand are also, on average, among the highest paying occupations," said Levanon. Healthcare practitioners (219,000) and Management (191,200) are the two occupations with the most number of ads posted online. According to the latest federal hourly wage data, wages average about $31 for healthcare practitioners and $46 an hour for management. Also in high demand are occupations in computer and mathematical (183,000), business and financial operations (170,200) and office and administrative support (169,000).
In May, 45 of the 52 metro areas for which data is reported separately posted a smaller number of advertised vacancies than last year. The deterioration in the job market in some of the nation's largest metro areas is further reflected in comparing the number of unemployed to the number of advertised vacancies. Since July 2007, the number of metro areas with a supply/demand rate of less than one has fallen from 23 areas to 11 areas.
The top metro areas in April as measured by most advertised vacancies per 100 persons in the local labor force included Austin (5.77), Milwaukee (5.57), Denver (4.93), San Jose (4.87), and San Francisco (4.84).
