States: Larger States in the South continue to show modest strength while the trend is still down in the West.
Occupations: Advertised vacancies in Sales and related occupations increase in July, but for every online advertised vacancy, there are 4 unemployed workers seeking jobs in this field.
"Online job demand has held relatively steady at around 3.3 million advertised vacancies per month for the last six months," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. The monthly number of advertised vacancies in 2009 continues to average about 1.2 million below the monthly average of 4.5 million in 2008. "While we are not seeing declines, the sluggish nature of labor demand is another indication that the path to recovery is likely to remain a long haul," he said.
Regional and State Highlights
- Modest strength for last few months seen in several large States in the South including North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland.
- Large States in the West continue a downward trend.
- Among the 20 most populous states, unemployed people outnumber advertised vacancies (Supply/Demand) and range from a low of 2.0 to 1 (Maryland) to 10.7 to 1 (Michigan).
Looking at the overall trend in online job demand, the South showed the most positive development. In July, large States that continued to show modest increases include Virginia(4,700), Maryland (3,300), and North Carolina (1,400). Texas, which has been slower to show growth in labor demand, was virtually unchanged in July, up 900. Among the smaller states in the South, Oklahoma (500) and Alabama (400) increased very modestly in July. Florida and Georgia, which have been relatively flat over the last few months, declined 4,400 and 3,700, respectively. Louisiana (-4,300), Kentucky (-3,100), West Virginia (-2,000), and Arkansas (-1,500) also declined in July.
In the Northeast, Massachusetts (-300) was practically unchanged in July. New York showed the largest increase (16,800). Pennsylvania (6,800) showed the next largest increase and was followed by New Jersey (2,300). Among the states with smaller populations in the region, Maine dropped 700 in July, but overall has shown a flat trend since January.
The overall trend in the larger States in the West continued to be down in July. California dipped (-3,300) followed by Arizona (-3,200), Washington (-2,800), and Colorado (-1,500). Arizona’s loss offset the majority of its June gain. Colorado’s loss offset close to half of its June gain. While the monthly declines in labor demand have moderated in California, the overall trend continues to be down for all of 2009. Among the states with smaller populations, Hawaii and New Mexico declined by 1,400 and 900, respectively. Nevada was unchanged, dipping by 100 in July.
In the Midwest, Minnesota and Missouri were virtually unchanged, both declining 100. Illinois declined by 3,900 and Michigan decreased by 1,800. Partially offsetting these declines were increases in Wisconsin (2,400), and Ohio (900). Ohio continues to be the Midwest state where drops in labor demand have leveled off over the last couple of months.
The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. in June (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) was at 4.47, up slightly from 4.32 in May and indicating that there are now nearly 4.5 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy. Among the states, the highest Supply/Demand rate, and the highest recorded since the HWOL series began in May 2005, is in Michigan (10.69), or close to 11 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy. Other states where there are over 6 unemployed for every advertised vacancy are Indiana (7.40), Kentucky (6.69), Ohio (6.65), North Carolina (6.33), and South Carolina (6.17). North Dakota (1.25) and Alaska (1.66) have some of the lowest rates.
It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rate only provides a measure of relative tightness of the individual State labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies (see Occupational Highlights section).
It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rate only provides a measure of relative tightness of the individual State labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies (see Occupational Highlights section).
OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
- Sales and Related occupations and Management occupations experienced largest July increases in job demand.
- Labor demand continues to remain well below year-ago levels for most occupations.
Sales and related occupations (up 11,700) and Management (up 9,400) experienced the largest July increases in online advertised vacancies and are occupations that have shown an upward trend over the last few months.
Ads for Sales and related occupations at 375,600 in July have been on an upward trend since February 2009, when there was a steep increase. The sales occupations with the largest July increases include First-Line Retail Supervisors/Managers, Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Representatives, and Retail Salespeople. "However, looking at the Supply/Demand rate in June (the latest month for which unemployment data are available) there are over four unemployed people for every advertised vacancy in this occupational category," said Levanon.
"Based on the number of unemployed relative to the number of advertised vacancies, workers looking for jobs in the management field will find it somewhat easier than those looking for sales positions," said Levanon. In June, there were fewer than two unemployed (1.7) for every online advertised vacancy. Advertised vacancies in Management occupations have trended upward since May and in July, there were 413,000 Management jobs advertised online. The Management jobs with the largest July increases include Medical and Health Services Managers, Sales Managers and Marketing Managers.
Among the top 10 occupations in July with online advertised vacancies, the broad category of Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and Media rose 4,400 to 102.600; Healthcare Support was up 3,300 to 101,100; and Computer and Mathematical occupations rose a modest 1,100 to 397,800. Top 10 occupations with declines in job demand in July included the largest category, Healthcare Practitioner and Technical, which dipped 3,700 to 518,400. Business and Financial vacancies declined 5,100 to 177,600 and Architecture and Engineering vacancies dropped 4,000 to 117,700. Office and Administrative Support was down 1,700 in July to 339,600.
Supply/Demand rates indicated that, among the occupations with the largest number of online advertised vacancies, there is a significant difference in the number of unemployed seeking positions in these occupations. Among the top ten occupations advertised online, there were more vacancies than unemployed people seeking positions for Healthcare Practitioners (0.4) and Computer and Mathematical Science (0.6). On the other hand, in Sales and Related Occupations, there were about four people seeking jobs in this field for every online advertised vacancy (4.2) and there were nearly five unemployed looking for work in Office and Administrative Support positions for every advertised opening (4.8). For Management positions, there were almost two people looking for every advertised opening (1.7).
METRO AREA HIGHLIGHTS
- 48 of top 52 Metro areas post over-the-year declines in job demand in July.
- Honolulu labor demand up 2,400 over last year’s levels, Providence and Baltimore gain 600 each, and Virginia Beach gains 100.
In July, only 4 of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted over-the-year increases in the number of online advertised vacancies. Honolulu, with 12,500 ads, was well above last year’s level (23.8 percent). Providence, with 18,000, gained 600 advertised vacancies compared to last year. Baltimore, with 62,000, gained 600. Virginia Beach, with 19,700, gained a modest 100. Among the three metro areas with the largest numbers of advertised vacancies, the New York metro area was about 17 percent below its July 2008 level, and the Los Angeles metro area was 25 percent below its July 2008 level. Washington, D.C. was down 4,600, or 2.9 percent, from last year’s level.
The number of unemployed exceeded the number of advertised vacancies in all of the 52 metro areas for which information is reported separately. Washington, D.C. and Salt Lake City were the locations with the most favorable supply/demand rates, where the number of unemployed looking for work was only slightly larger than the number of advertised vacancies.On the other hand, metro areas in which the respective number of unemployed is substantially above the number of online advertised vacancies include Detroit,MI, where there are nearly 12 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy (11.9), Riverside (10.1), Miami (6.6), Chicago (5.7), and Sacramento (5.5). Supply/Demand rate data are for June 2009, the latest month for which unemployment data for local areas are available.
