The national recession may be the longest and deepest in 60 years, but it will bottom out in 2009 followed by a sharp rebound, two economists agreed at the Comerica Bank Economic Forecast Conference in Santa Clara, Calif.

"We should see at least a 6 percent increase in Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter," Dana Johnson, Comerica Bank's chief economist, told approximately 600 Silicon Valley business leaders assembled at the Santa Clara Convention Center this morning. "I don't think it's at all a stretch to say that once the economy picks up steam, it will be really impressive."

Stanford University economist John B. Shoven agreed, but said he believed the rebound would likely occur in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The two economists said the responses by the U.S. government to the economic crisis helped stave off disaster. "We came within an eyelash of a catastrophic failure of our financial system," said Johnson.

In one of the first economic forecast events after the inauguration of President Barack Obama, the two leading economists praised the new President's economic team, but said government actions won't prevent the nation's unemployment rate from rising to 9 percent by mid-year. Johnson also predicted that "the federal fiscal stimulus headed our way beginning this spring...will do an enormous amount to get this economy going."

Shoven said that as soon as investors realize the nation's economy will strengthen by 2010, "the stock market could start to rally in the second quarter," several months ahead of the recovery.

Business and community leaders from across the Bay Area were invited to attend the fourth annual Comerica Bank Economic Forecast Conference, which featured a question-and-answer session and networking reception.