This forecast is very similar to the one eMarketer issued in March. In August, however, the 2009 prediction was revised downward to a drop of 3.1% after our benchmark, the US Census Bureau, released first-half figures that were worse than expected.
E-commerce was always expected to outperform overall retail, but positive growth in the second half seemed increasingly unlikely as consumer confidence, consumer spending and unemployment continued to worsen. Despite the greater savings and convenience usually found online, e-commerce was not immune from the effects of the recession.
But the trend of negative growth rates was reversed when Q3 2009 Census Bureau figures released in November showed e-commerce sales up 2.1% versus the same period a year ago. Overall retail sales, meanwhile, posted a “less bad” 7.8% drop. After initial cutbacks made by consumers, e-commerce resumed positive growth as shoppers shifted their spending online. eMarketer expects the trend to continue and anticipates 5% year-over-year growth in Q4.
Although the situation is improving, these single digit e-commerce growth rates are a far cry from the 20%-plus annual growth rates seen prior to 2008. Within the next two years, increases will again hit double-digit levels, but will not reach the same heights as the channel continues to mature.
