The majority of survey respondents did not show a significant decline in their intended holiday spending for 2007, as compared to 2006. Standard & Poor's Equity Research believes that this can be attributed to a strong job market and stable personal income outlook. Only 18% of respondents saw their personal financial situation worsening in the next six months. At the same time, while rising gas prices were of substantial concern, worries over job security were considerably lower.
"Despite a challenging economic environment, which many in our survey believe will worsen, the American consumer perseveres," notes Marie Driscoll, Director of the Consumer Discretionary-Retail Group for Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services. "Although our survey showed that housing concerns are weighing less than we expected on consumer minds, there is still reason for tempered optimism, especially as this may impact consumer confidence in 2008, along with rising fuel cost concerns. While Standard & Poor's believes that Holiday sales will be up modestly, we still stress investors take a cautious approach."
Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services' survey of consumer behavior and attitudes was conducted during November 2007 by InsightExpress. The survey sample consisted of 1,100 respondents throughout the U.S. to an online survey consisting of approximately 25 questions regarding their Holiday spending plans as well as their outlook in early 2008.
S&P Equity Research's 2007 Holiday Retail Outlook and Stock Picks was released in November 2007. The report examines the trends within the consumer discretionary retail industry for the Holiday season, and discusses the potential outcomes. Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services believes that retail sales will be weighed down by an array of economic concerns on consumers' minds, including continued housing weakness and high energy costs.
The report identifies many companies that have upside potential, along with stocks that may experience weak performance based on their current market position and exposure.
Retail analysts generally consider Christmas and Chanukah to be the biggest spending holidays, accounting for approximately 25% of GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, and other store) sales. S&P Economics sees GAFO sales rising 3% to 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007.