Churn as the Status Quo
Churn is the result of continuous movement among workers. In other words: workers quit, retire, get fired, find new jobs, return to school, move to new locations, etc. - even during a recession. In fact, today's professionals - on average - change jobs every three years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Churn can often accelerate during economic hardships, McGovern noted. "Like star athletes who don't want to play for losing teams, top professionals seek out opportunities to play for more successful organizations. After all, who wants their hard work and dedication during a recession to be rewarded with a pink slip?"
McGovern, in his white paper, cites the downturn of 2001 as an important guide for what recruiters and job seekers can expect of the job market in the months ahead. As CEO of one of the country's largest job boards at that time, McGovern witnessed a dramatic reduction in the number of online job listings in September 2001, on the heels of the tragic events of 9/11. But by the end of the year, job postings were at a record high.
"Worker churn continues and often accelerates when overall business growth slows," McGovern said. "It's a nice fantasy, often held by CFOs, that the addition of new headcount can be frozen to cut costs. But when a star sales person leaves, a key technologist calls it quits and the receptionist bolts, managers have to backfill to keep their business running."
