The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in October to 101.92, up from the revised figure of 101.20 in September. The October figure is up 5 percent from the same month a year ago.

Says Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board: “The increase in the Employment Trends Index in October, and the upward revisions for September and August, signal a slightly more optimistic outlook for jobs. However, given the deterioration in the confidence of consumers, businesses and investors in recent months, we think that the economy is simply not strong enough to deliver more than 125,000 jobs a month.”

This month’s strength in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from six out of the eight components. The improving indicators include The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey® “Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons, Job Openings, and Industrial Production.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)