The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, also increased in February. Between August 2010 and February 2011, the index increased 1.2 percent (a 2.4 percent annual rate), in line with the growth of 1.3 percent (a 2.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components advancing over the past six months. This month, the lagging economic index increased at the same pace as the CEI, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio remained unchanged, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 2.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. remains on a rising trend with widespread strength among its components, and its six-month growth rate has quickened lately. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continues to be on a generally increasing path, and its sixmonth growth rate has picked up slightly in recent months. All in all, the current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity should continue to expand, and may even pick up modestly in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Eight of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in February. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were the interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, real money supply, average weekly manufacturing hours, the index of consumer expectations, the index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributors – beginning with the larger negative contributor – were building permits and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 113.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in January and increased 1.0 percent in December. During the sixmonth span through February, the leading economic index increased 3.9 percent, with eight out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in February. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, industrial production and manufacturing and trade sales.
The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 102.5 (2004=100). This index increased 0.3 percent in January and increased 0.3 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the coincident economic index increased 1.2 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
LAGGING INDICATORS.
The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 108.0 (2004=100) in February, with three of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding, change in CPI for services, and change in labor cost per unit of output. The negative contributors – beginning with the larger negative contributor – were ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income, and average duration of unemployment (inverted). The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales and the average prime rate charged by banks held steady in February. Based on revised data, the lagging economic index decreased 0.3 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December.
