"The sharp December drop in online advertised vacancies is another indication that the economy has not reached bottom," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "The widespread nature of the decline in employers' demand for workers - both across geographies and across occupations - does not bode well for an employment upturn in the first half of 2009."
The gap between the number of unemployed and online advertised vacancies was just short of 6 million in November. "With the sharp December drop of a half-million advertised vacancies, and an anticipated increase in the number of unemployed when the Federal unemployment numbers for December are released on Friday, we expect that gap to widen substantially," said Levanon.
The effect of lower employer demand combined with increasing unemployment makes it more difficult for the unemployed to find jobs.
The lower labor demand is also keeping a downward pressure on the employment levels which turned lower eleven months ago in January 2008.
REGIONAL/STATE HIGHLIGHTS
- Advertised vacancies dropped in 49 of the 50 States in December; South Dakota is the only exception
- Six states (Alaska, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming) continue to have favorable Supply/Demand rates (fewer unemployed persons than advertised vacancies)
In December, labor demand declined in all four regions of the nation - the Northeast, South, Midwest and the West - with the most populous states in all of the regions posting declines.
"Among the larger states in the South, there were some notable changes," said Levanon. In Maryland, job demand was down 12,400 in December and the trend shifted to essentially flat. Texas was down 37,400 in December and the trend for the state shifted to negative. The recent trend in job demand in North Carolina and Virginia is essentially flat, although their December numbers were both down (-14,300 and 14,100, respectively). Florida and Georgia continued their downward trend with December declines of 22,900 and 15,100, respectively.
Among the larger states in the Northeast region, New York posted the largest decline in labor demand (-35,700). Massachusetts, which had been essentially flat, dropped for the second consecutive month (-14,600 in December and -10,200 in November) and joins the other large states in the region with an overall downward trend in labor demand. Job demand in Pennsylvania dropped 17,600, while advertised vacancies in New Jersey were down 18,300 in December.
In the West, Colorado (-13,500) and Washington (-12,300) have shifted to negative. Arizona and California both continued to decline. Arizona was down 10,800 and California declined 49,100.
In the Midwest region, Ohio had the largest drop in December (-19,500), after posting a small increase in November. Illinois was down 17,400 in December. Looking at Illinois over this past year, job demand has trended downward since August - a situation similar to Missouri, which was down 8,100 in December. In the other large states in the region, while they showed losses in December - Minnesota (-12,600), Michigan (-12,300) and Wisconsin (-13,400) - the overall trend remains relatively flat.
Among the states with smaller populations, only South Dakota posted a gain in advertised vacancies in December (+1,500). Two other states that were basically unchanged in December were Vermont (-200) and Montana (-400).
The downward trend in employer demand, coupled with the monthly increases in unemployment, is creating a widening gap in the supply/demand balance in most States and making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. has been increasing and in November (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) was at 2.36, up from 2.27 in October, or over 2 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy. The rate is expected to rise further when the December unemployment numbers are released.
The highest Supply/Demand rate is in Michigan (5.09), or over 5 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy. States where there are over 3 unemployed for every advertised vacancy include Mississippi (4.11), Indiana (3.45), Kentucky (3.54), Ohio (3.10), California (3.26), North Carolina (3.38), South Carolina (3.20), Illinois (3.08), Georgia (3.38) Tennessee (3.03) and Florida (3.37).
It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rates only provide a measure of relative tightness of the individual state labor markets and do not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies (see Occupational Highlights section).
OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
- Labor demand down over 20% from year ago levels for a wide range of occupations
- Job Demand is hard hit in Construction; Transportation & Material Moving; Management; Business & Finance; and Food-related work
- Health Support occupations post modest gain over the year
The widespread nature of the downturn in the economy is evident in the large number of occupations where online advertised vacancies in December were 20 percent or more below levels in December 2007. The list of occupations experiencing a decline in labor demand included both high-paying occupations such as Management, where wages average over $46.00/hour, to lower-paying occupations such as Construction at $19.53/hour and food service jobs averaging $9.35/hour.
In December, there were 409,100 online advertised vacancies for management positions - a decline of 147,200 or 26% from year ago levels. Demand for computer and mathematical positions dropped 106,200 to 450,600, and were 19% below the December 2007 level.Office and administrative support job ads were down 47,600 to 391,700 over the same period. Other categories showing declines included construction (-14,300); architecture and engineering (-49,400); sales and related jobs (-45,500); and production work (-20,300).
In the healthcare field, where job demand has remained positive over the last few months, the number of online advertised job vacancies for healthcare practitioner and technical occupations was down 49,200 over the year to 523,600 in December. Job demand for healthcare support workers was up slightly (+2,900) to 87,200.
Other categories that posted modest over-the-year gains were arts, design, entertainment and sports jobs, up 5,600 to 87,700. Farming, fishing and forestry, which has a relatively small number of advertised vacancies on line, also showed a modest gain of 300 ads to 4,100 in December.
METRO AREA HIGHLIGHTS
- 49 of top 52 Metro areas posted over-the-year declines in job demand in December
- Only 2 metro areas - Washington, D.C. and Salt Lake City - have more advertised vacancies than the number of unemployed
In December, 50 of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted declines in the number of online advertised job vacancies from last December. Honolulu, with 14,200 ads, was well above levels of last year, and Providence, RI, at 16,400, was basically unchanged (up 200). The New York metro area, while it continued to post the largest number of advertised vacancies (199,770), had 64,600 fewer ads than in December 2007. Washington, D.C., an area that has exhibited strength over the last few months, was down slightly (-6,700).
The two metro areas in which the respective number of advertised job vacancies exceeded the numbers of unemployed were Salt Lake City and Washington, DC. On the other hand, metro areas in which the respective number of unemployed are substantially above the number of online advertised vacancies are Riverside, CA, where there are over 7 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy (7.4), Detroit (5.3), Miami (3.4), Tampa (3.3), Sacramento (3.3), Los Angeles (3.2), and Atlanta (3.1).
