"The good news is that labor demand was basically flat in February; the bad news is that we are still at the lowest level since this data series on online labor demand began in 2005," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "Advertised vacancies are a leading indicator of movements in employment several months from now. It's nice to see the labor demand hold steady for even one month, but the economy is still hurting from the weakened consumer demand (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is at an all-time low) and continued crisis in the financial markets." In January, the number of unemployed looking for work already exceeded the number of advertised vacancies by 8.3 million. When the Federal employment and unemployment numbers for February are released at the end of this week, unemployment is expected to rise and the supply/demand gap will widen.
REGIONAL/STATE HIGHLIGHTS
- Mixed picture: Advertised vacancies drop in half of the 50 States in February, up in others
- Long-term trend is down for all of the 20 largest States
The national picture was mixed in February with online labor demand declining in the South and West while it increased in the Northeast and MidWest. The majority of the most populous states in all regions but the West posted modest increases. However, the longer-term trend is down in all four regions and all of the 20 largest states.
In the South, North Carolina continued its downward trend with a modest February decline of 1,000. Other populous states in the South posted modest gains: Texas (1,800), Georgia (4,500), Florida (2,200), Maryland (4,300), and Virginia (1,100).
Among the larger states in the Northeast region, New York posted the largest increase in labor demand (6,200). New Jersey posted the next largest increase (5,300) and was followed by Pennsylvania (3,300) and Massachusetts (2,600).
In the West, California and Arizona have shown downward trends since Summer 2007 and also posted declines in February - California -3,100 and Arizona a modest -200. Labor demand in Colorado and Washington began to turn down in Summer 2008 and were down 1,100 and a very modest 100 respectively in February.
In the Midwest region, Missouri was the only state to continue its decline (-2,100 in February). Ohio, which had experienced large drops for two consecutive months, gained a modest 300. Illinois, which had trended downward since August 2008, experienced the largest increase in February (4,400). Michigan increased by 3,200. Minnesota and Wisconsin also posted modest gains of 1,300 and 800, respectively.
Among the states with smaller populations, states with modest declines in February were Rhode Island (-300), Hawaii (-300), Indiana (-400), Delaware (-400), Wyoming (-500), Vermont (-500), and Alabama (-500).
The downward trend in employer demand coupled with the monthly increases in unemployment is creating a widening gap in the supply/demand balance in most States and making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. has been increasing and in January (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) was at 3.46, up from 2.88 in December, or over 3 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy. The rate is expected to rise further when the February unemployment numbers are released.
January unemployment data for States and Regions are not available until mid-March.
It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rates only provide a measure of relative tightness of the individual State labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies.
OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
- Labor demand down over 30 percent from year ago levels for a wide range of occupations
- Job demand is hard hit in Legal; Transportation & Material Moving; Office & Administrative Support; Production; Construction; Architecture & Engineering; Management; Food-related work; and Business & Finance
- Online job demand for Healthcare Support occupations shows strength with modest increase of 1,000
The widespread nature of the downturn in the economy remains evident in the large number of occupations where online advertised vacancies in February were 30 percent or more below levels in February 2008. The list of occupations experiencing severe declines in labor demand included both high-paying occupations like Legal and Management where wages average over $42.00/hour to lower-paying occupations like Transportation & Material Moving at $14.75/hour and food service jobs averaging $9.35/hour.
In February, there were 408,100 online advertised vacancies for management positions - a decline of 191,000, 32 percent from last February's level. Demand for office and administrative support job positions dropped 187,100 to 341,900 and were 35 percent below the February 2008 level. Computer and mathematical job ads were down 146,000 to 439,700 over the same period. Other categories showing severe declines included business & finance (-90,700), architecture and engineering (-70,200), and sales and related jobs (-43,200).
In the healthcare field, where job demand has remained positive over the last few months, the number of online advertised vacancies for healthcare practitioner and technical occupations was down 65,400 over the past year to 523,300 in February. Job demand for healthcare support workers was up very slightly (1,000) to 92,100.
METRO AREA HIGHLIGHTS
- 50 of top 52 Metro areas post over-the-year declines in job demand in February
- Honolulu labor demand up 1,900 over last year's levels while Oklahoma City gains a modest 300 advertised vacancies
In February, 50 of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted declines in the number of online advertised vacancies from last February. Honolulu with 11,100 ads was well above levels of last year (21.2 percent), and Oklahoma City, with 16,500, gained 300 ads compared to last year. The New York metro area, while it continued to post the largest number of advertised vacancies (197,600), had 125,700 fewer ads than in February 2008. Washington, D.C., an area that has exhibited strength over the last few months, was down 21,900. Los Angeles, with the next highest number of advertised vacancies, was down 59,800.
The only metro area in which the number of advertised vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed was Salt Lake City. On the other hand, metro areas in which the respective number of unemployed is substantially above the number of online advertised vacancies are Riverside, CA, where there are nearly 10 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy (9.8), Detroit (8.1), Miami (4.6), Tampa (4.4), Sacramento (4.3), Los Angeles (4.3), Atlanta (4.1), and Providence (4.1). Supply/Demand rate data is for December 2008, the latest month for which unemployment data are available.
