As a result of the rise in confidence levels, The Harris Poll Confidence Index had risen very sharply from 44 in 2008 to 54 this year. This is close to where it had been between 2004 and 2007.
Largest Changes from Last Year
One institution stands out for having the largest increase. Those who have a "great deal of confidence" in the leadership in the White House have more than doubled from 15% last year to 36% this year – a gain of fully 21 points. While one might assume this type of jump would happen with every new president that has not been the case.
* In 2001, after George W. Bush was inaugurated, those saying they had a great deal of confidence in the leadership in the White House showed no change (25% in both 2000 and 2001);
* After Bill Clinton was sworn into office, those saying they had a great deal of confidence in the White House dropped slightly from 25% in 1992 to 23% in 1993;
* When George H. W. Bush became president, there was a slight increase from 17% saying they had a great deal of confidence in the leadership of the White House in 1988 to 20% in 1989;
* Ronald Reagan saw an increase when he became president as 18% of Americans in 1980 said they had a great deal of confidence in the leadership of the White House while 28% said the same in 1981, an increase of 10 points; and,
* Up until this year Jimmy Carter was the stand out as just 11% of Americans said they had a great deal of confidence in the White House leadership in 1976 but this number jumped 20 points to 31% in 1977.
This poll also shows substantial increases in the number of people who have a great deal of confidence in:
* Major Educational Institutions, up eight points from 32% to 40%;
* The Military, up seven points from 51% to 58%.
There are only two institutions which show a decrease in the number of people who have a great deal of confidence in them:
* Wall Street, down seven points from 11% to 4%;
* Major Companies, down three points from 14% to 11%.
Institutions at the Top and Bottom of the List
In this year’s survey the leaders of six institutions enjoy the most confidence:
* The military (58% have a great deal of confidence);
* Small business (48%);
* Major educational institutions (40%);
* The White House (36%);
* Medicine (34%);
* Organized religion (30%);
Leaders of the following institution engender the lowest levels of confidence:
* Wall Street (only 4% have a great deal of confidence);
* The Congress (9%);
* Law firms (11%);
* Major Companies (11%);
* The press (12%);
Republicans Have More Confidence in the Leaders of Some Institutions and Democrats Have More Confidence in Others
Republicans tend to have more confidence than Democrats in the leaders of:
* The military (65% vs. 49%);
* Small business (58% vs. 39%);
* Organized religion (36% vs. 22%);
* Major companies (14% vs. 18%);
Democrats, on the other hand, tend to have more confidence in the leaders of:
* Major educational institutions (49% vs. 33%);
* The White House (36% vs. 14%);
* Television news (32% vs. 13%);
* Organized labor (19% vs. 9%);
* Congress (14% vs. 4%).
So What?
Public perceptions of different institutions and their leaders matter. They influence behavior. Legislators and regulators are probably more likely to take a tougher line with unpopular institutions than with popular ones and this is seen by the recent Capitol Hill grilling of corporate leaders by Members of Congress. The media may also play up "bad" stories about the leaders of unpopular institutions. What is also clear is that President Obama has high approval numbers and people have confidence in him and his leadership. As a result, some Republicans are reluctant to directly challenge him.
Perceptions over time change and the rationale behind those changes are not always under a leaders’ control. At the moment, Americans have a sense of hope in the new president and this sense of optimism translates to 14 of 16 institutions seeing a rise in those having a great deal of confidence in their leaders. If the economic crisis continues until next year, that sense of optimism may erode along with confidence in the leaders of these institutions.
