"In terms of SAAR, July is likely to be the best month for vehicle sales since the 'Cash-for-Clunkers' Program fueled August 2009," said Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insight for TrueCar.com. "The fact that retail sales are up despite the flat incentive spending indicates a marked improvement in consumer demand, which offers promise for a more robust second half recovery."
TrueCar.com is reporting the following about sales and incentive spending in July:
- Among the major manufacturers, GM will experience the biggest percentage gain in sales versus last July with 23.2%, followed by Hyundai/Kia at 14.2%. Toyota will be the only one within that group that will report a decline in year-over-year sales with a 4.4% drop.
- Fleet & rental sales are expected to make up only 16% of total industry sales, which is the lowest so far in 2010.
- The Japanese automakers surpassed the domestics in terms of year-over-year incentive spending changes, with the largest increase coming from Honda (60%) and Toyota (36%). The only domestic manufacturer to up spending was Ford (17%), while both GM (-1%) and Chrysler (-12%) both dialed back their incentives.
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
