The RBC Index is a monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The Index is composed of four sub-indices: RBC Current Conditions Index; RBC Expectations Index; RBC Investment Index; and, RBC Jobs Index. The Index is benchmarked to a baseline of 100 assigned at its introduction in January 2002. This month's findings are based on a representative nationwide sample of 1,000 U.S. adults polled from October 1-4, 2009, by survey-based research company Ipsos Public Affairs. The margin of error was +/-3.1 percent.
Highlights of the survey results include:
- The RBC Investment Index increased sharply this month, climbing 21.1 points to 58.0 - the highest mark for the Investment Index this year. Pessimism has declined significantly since mid-summer, with the number of Americans who report they feel less confident in their ability to make investments for the future dropping to 54 percent, down from 64 percent in July. Consumers who feel confident about investing for the future continued to improve, increasing to 33 percent in October, from 31 percent last month. Consumer comfort levels for making major purchases, such as a car or new home, also edged up, with 22 percent of consumers reporting they are more confident this month, compared to 19 percent in September.
- Fueled by a drop in consumer pessimism, the RBC Current Conditions Index also reached a twelve-month high in October as it climbed to 50.3, up 17.1 points from the September reading of 33.2. The percentage of consumers saying their personal financial situation is weak has dropped to 27 percent in October from 37 percent last month. Americans' assessment of current local economic conditions held steady this month, with 41 percent of consumers saying their local economy is currently weak, essentially the same rate as the 42 percent observed in September.
- Consumers' near-term economic outlook brightened for the third consecutive month, sending the RBC Expectations Index to 54.2, up 12.7 points from September's level of 41.5. Although consumers' expectations for both their local economies and their personal finances are essentially unchanged since last month, there is now much less concern with impending job losses, resulting in the overall Expectations Index improving. Currently, 36 percent of consumers believe the economy in their community will be stronger in the next month, while only 16 percent believe it will continue to weaken, roughly the same split as in September.
- Americans remain guarded about the job market, as evidenced by the slight increase in the RBC Jobs Index by 5.8 points in October to 59.3, well below the 78.8 level observed at this time one year ago. The most significant influence on confidence in job security continues to be real experiences in job loss. This month, 67 percent of Americans say they or someone in their close circle has lost a job in the past six months, up from 63 percent in September. Despite ongoing job losses, relative confidence in personal job security also continues to show signs of improvement. Nearly one-third (31 percent) of American consumers say that they feel more confident in their job security now than they did six months ago, up from 28 percent in September. Correspondingly, the proportion of consumers who are less confident in their personal job security is down to 58 percent in October after reaching a high of 71 percent in March.
