The domestic economy is weak, and the financial markets are nervous. The Federal Reserve will meet this week to decide how much lower interest rates should go. But they didn't wait before announcing to help troubled financial firms. The Federal Reserve announced a willingness to buy as much as $200 billion in very short-term obligations, with the ECB and other central banks also pledging some help.

Regardless of whether $200 billion is the right amount or not, what's crystal clear is an acknowledgement that lower interest rates alone are not enough to help unfreeze credit markets. And a weak economy cannot start to gather upward momentum without a functioning credit market. The big question isn't whether this is a recession or not. Rather, it's whether this is weak growth or recession, how bad it will get and how long before it starts to get better. How well the Fed's latest attempt to help financial markets function normally will help resolve some of these questions.

The U.S. economy is slow and might even turn weaker. Domestic weakness and financial turmoil are taking their toll elsewhere. Yes, Japan's economy had a robust quarter. But surveys of consumer or investor sentiment abroad show growing concern that problems in financial markets in general, and credit conditions in particular, could exact a toll on overall economic activity.

Meanwhile, oil went to nearly $110/bbl while stock markets continued to move a little lower. Stocks generally lost about 5 percent this past month, paced by declines in New York and Tokyo. That's only half the decline year to date. Unless growth prospects improve this spring, there is little reason to anticipate a rally. That, together with questions about access to financing, could hurt investment in general, potentially weakening economic activity. In short, March hasn't been a good month. April might not be much better.