As more data come in, it looks increasingly as if September was as good a month as August was bad. Talk about a housing slump leading to an economic slowdown has become more muted, as it becomes clearer that the pace of economic activity isn't that weak, and potentially might not be weakening. If a recession isn't just around the corner, what is?

Slow, but not slowing growth. And attention will soon turn to whether this upcoming holiday season will be weak or more moderate. It isn't likely to be strong. Finally, with oil still around $83 a barrel late this past week, attention is beginning to focus on how much more it might cost to stay warm this winter. Chances it will be more expensive. High energy costs, perhaps higher mortgage rates (especially for those subject to a reset), and even higher property taxes in some locales are in store this winter, in the midst of a slow but not slowing economy.

Tuesday, October 16

9:15am Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve Board)

Total industrial output only rose by 0.2 percent in August. Look for a bigger jump in production in September. Utility output is weather-related. But after a drop in August, auto output likely boosted total industrial production in September.

Wednesday, October 17

8:30am Consumer Price Indexes (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The "core" CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose by 0.2 percent in August and might have repeated that performance in September. If there is any change in trend, look at the numbers for housing and medical costs. If the economy doesn't slow down, those costs are likely to edge higher over the next few months, sending the "core" rate of inflation above 0.2 per month.

8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits (Bureau of the Census)

Home building is clearly mired in a slump. It may not have slowed further in September but a true turnover is more than a year away.

Thursday, October 18

10:00am Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators

The indicators have been pointing to slow, but necessarily slowing, growth ahead. Did that change in September?

BY THE END OF THE WEEK

The economic data showed more strength in consumer spending power than in consumer spending, at least through September. That could mean some extra saving, possibly to be used in this upcoming holiday season. Meanwhile, the Leading Economic Indexes (except for the US, UK, and Japan) are pointing to sustained moderate to robust economic growth. And only weeks after the gyrations of August, stock exchanges across the globe are generally higher than they were at the start of August. One concern then is that there is enough global demand to heat up commodity prices, not just energy prices. This is one reason why (outside of the Federal Reserve) central banks are weighing the need to tighten monetary policy.