The RBC CASH Index is a monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The Index is composed of four sub-indices: RBC Current Conditions Index; RBC Expectations Index; RBC Investment Index; and, RBC Jobs Index. The Index is benchmarked to a baseline of 100 assigned at its introduction in January 2002. This month's findings are based on a representative nationwide sample of 1,009 U.S. adults polled from December 3-5, 2007 by survey-based research company Ipsos Public Affairs. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 per cent.
Highlights of the survey results include:
- After free-falling into negative territory in November, Americans' expectations regarding future economic conditions inched up this month. The RBC Expectations Index for December stands at a tepid 7.9, up 12 points from -4.3 last month. This month, 22 per cent of consumers report they expect their local economy to be stronger six months from now, compared to 19 per cent in November, while one quarter (25 per cent) expect their local economy to be weaker in six months, compared to 27 per cent last month. Job loss expectations also contributed to the improvement, as those reporting future job loss is likely declined slightly this month to 16 per cent, compared to 19 per cent in November.
- The RBC Current Conditions Index slipped again this month reaching 85.3, down 5 points from November's 90.3 level, and down more than 15 points from October when it stood at 101.1. A decline in Americans' comfort with making household purchases was the main driver behind the decline, a potentially troubling sign for retailers during this holiday shopping season. Consumers' comfort level for making household purchases dipped to 32 per cent in December from 34 per cent last month, and their discomfort level reached 49 per cent this month, compared to 47 per cent in November.
- The RBC Jobs Index registered a small gain this month, reaching 113.9, compared to 111.8 in November, as Americans' concerns over job security stabilized. Personal job loss experience in December decreased by two points, with 33 per cent of consumers reporting job loss in their immediate circle, compared to 35 per cent last month. Americans reporting no personal job loss in their immediate circle also increased two points, reaching 66 per cent this month, compared to 64 per cent in November.
- Consumers' views of the investment climate continued to cool in December bringing the RBC Investment Index down another four points to 79.7, compared to 83.4 last month. While consumer comfort levels for future investments held steady at 37 per cent, and the percentage of Americans reporting they are less confident in investing remained unchanged from November's 46 per cent, the decline in consumers' perceptions of their personal finances and their comfort level in making household purchases contributed to the decline in the RBC Investment Index.
