Tuesday, August 26, 2008
10:00am Consumer Confidence (The Conference Board)
Consumer expectations have dropped dramatically, and jobs continue to shrink. Are these conditions changing?
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
8:30am Advance Report on Durable Goods (Bureau of the Census)
The ordering rate has been soft. But given the weakness of the overall economy, the surprise is that orders haven't been contracting. They probably posted a modest rise in July.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
8:30am Gross Domestic Product & Corporate Profits (2Q — 2008) (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The data on foreign trade came in stronger than assumed when the first estimate was made. This suggests there will be a fairly sizable upward revision to second quarter GDP, bringing the estimate above 2 percent (annualized), perhaps even above 2.5 percent. Growth in the third quarter, with less impact from rebate checks and perhaps not quite as strong a rise in productivity, will not even be half the pace of the second quarter. Finally, profit estimates will show a fourth straight quarterly decline - with a fifth decrease occurring now in the third quarter.
Friday, August 29, 2008
8:30am Personal Income and Outlays (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Look for personal income to have edged lower in July. Put another way, rebate checks pumped up the June increase and insured that July would show a decline. Spending rose about 0.3 percent, or about the pace of retail inflation. Real spending was probably flat in July, and could be edging lower in August. Consumer discretionary spending is being cut back, because consumers worry about how much worse the labor market will get in the second half of the year. They have reason to be worried, especially if profits are still falling, more than half a year into a downsizing period.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK
The domestic economy is not the only one wilting under the pressure of high energy prices and troubled financial markets. There is some relief on energy prices. Even prices for some industrial commodities, like copper, have come down from recent highs. These developments help keep the global economy from grinding to a halt. They are hardly reasons why the global economy might be regaining momentum. After all, the Leading Economic Indicators aren't just down for the U.S. At least four other countries (Japan, Germany, Korea, and the U. K.) are showing fairly significant declines in their latest readings. That's five of the nine countries covered. A tenth country, China, faces some uncertain prospects as the Olympics, spectacular though they have been, draw to a close.
