Over the 2006-16 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 15.6 million jobs, or 10 percent, slightly less than the 15.9 million jobs, or 12 percent, during the 1996-2006 decade. The labor force filling these jobs, while becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. This slowdown in the growth of the labor force is expected, in part, because of the aging and retiring of baby boomers. As a result, the need to replace workers who retire or leave the labor force for other reasons-called replacement needs-is projected to create a significant number of additional job openings.
Industry Employment
- Employment growth is projected to continue to be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. Service-providing industries will generate almost all of the employment gain from 2006 to 22016 and will provide more than three-quarters of all jobs in 2016. Professional and business services and health care and social assistance, the industry sectors with the largest employment growth, will add 8.1 million jobs, more than half of the projected increase in total employment.
- Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector projected to grow. Employment in manufacturing will decline by 1.5 million jobs. This decline is half of the 3 million manufacturing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006). Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9 to 13.1 percent of total employment.
- The 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment growth-led by management, scientific, and technical consulting services; employment services; and general medical and surgical hospitals-all are in the service-providing sector.
- Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts manufacturing.
Occupational Employment
- Professional and related occupations and service occupations-2 major occupational groups on opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges-are projected to grow the fastest and add the most jobs, accounting for more than 6 of 10 new jobs created over the 2006-16 decade.
- A large portion of job gains and losses are projected to be concentrated in a small number of detailed occupations. The 30 occupations with the largest numeric increases will account for more than half of all new jobs. The 30 occupations with the largest numeric declines will account for more than two-thirds of all job losses from declining occupations.
- Nineteen of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth are in professional and related occupations and service occupations.
- Twenty-eight of the 30 fastest growing occupations are in professional and related occupations and service occupations.
- Job openings generally are more numerous in large occupations. Of the 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 29 are projected to have more than 1 million jobs in 2016.
- Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are the two major occupational groups projected to lose employment over the decade.
Education and Training Categories
- For 19 of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth, short- or moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of postsecondary education or training.
- For 15 of the 30 fastest growing occupations, a bachelor’s or higher degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training.
- On-the-job training and work experience are the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 24 of the 30 occupations projected to have the most total job openings due to growth and net replacements.
- For 28 of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment declines, on-the-job training and work experience are the most significant sources of postsecondary education or training.
- The proportion of jobs in occupations that typically require a college degree will increase slightly between 2006 and 2016.
Labor Force
- The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 12.8 million over the 2006-16 decade, reaching 164.2 million by 2016. This 8.5 percent increase is less than the 13.1 percent increase over the previous decade-1996 to 2006-when the labor force grew by 17.5 million.
- The number of workers in the 55-and-older group is projected to grow by 46.7 percent, nearly 5.5 times the 8.5 percent growth projected for the labor force overall.
- Youths-those between the ages of 16 and 24-will decline in numbers and will see their share of the labor force fall from 14.8 to 12.7 percent. The number of prime-age workers-those between the ages of 25 and 54-will increase by 2.4 percent, but their share of the labor force will decline from 68.4 to 64.6 percent.
- The Hispanic labor force is expected to grow by 29.9 percent, reaching 26.9 million by 2016, while the non-Hispanic labor force is projected to grow by only 5.1 percent.
- Increases in the labor force will vary by race. Whites will remain the largest race group despite relatively slow growth of 5.5 percent, composing 79.6 percent of the labor force by 2016. The number of blacks will grow by 16.2 percent and will constitute 12.3 percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group, increasing by 29.9 percent and will make up 5.3 percent of the labor force by 2016.
