According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), one-fifth of all retail sales in the US (19.9%) occur during the holiday season, making it the most important time period of the year for the industry.

But this year, what with skyrocketing gas prices, fears of home heating costs rising, concern of another devastating hurricane season and tumbling home prices, retailers were worried that consumers would not be in a mood to spend for the holidays.

But the clouds of gloom may be to be parting. It looks like — for Virginia and retailers across the nation — Santa is on his way.

As gas prices continue to decline at the pump and hurricanes stay away from the mainland, the NRF has issued a strong positive forecast for the holiday season.

The NRF predicts that holiday retail sales will increase 5% over last year. That would put total holiday spending in the US — in the months of November and December excluding automotive, gas and restaurant sales — at $457.4 billion.



That compares to 2005 holiday sales of $435.6 billion, which, in turn, were 6.1% higher than in the previous year.

"Consumers have faced a number of economic challenges this year and have taken them in stride," said Rosalind Wells, chief economist for NRF. "Although sales gains will not be as robust as last year, retailers can still expect above-average holiday sales growth."

The breeze you are feeling is a collective sigh of relief from retailers across the country.

"For the first time in a while, most management teams say the consumer is alive and well and spending," Gabrielle Kivitz of Deutsche Bank told The New York Times.

Many retail executives remain conservative, however, citing both unsettled economic conditions and the lack of a "big" toy or consumer electronics product that would drive consumers into stores as reasons for keeping inventories leaner than usual in the run-up to the holidays.