Although the month-to-month changes in job openings, hires, and turnover data are often small, the trends over time are notable. The job openings rate has declined for the past 13 months after remaining essentially flat from August 2006 through September 2007. For the third time in 2008, the hires rate was 3.0 percent in October. Prior to 2008, the last time the hires rate was this low was May 2003. The separations rate has remained low for the past seven months, ranging from 2.9 to 3.2. The last time period that the separations rate was consistently at or below 3.2 was March 2003 thru March 2004.
Job Openings
The job openings rate was little changed in October 2008 but has been trending downward for over a year. At 2.2 percent in October, the job openings rate was at the lowest level since February 2004. Although the job openings rate was little changed at the total nonfarm and total private levels, the rate decreased significantly in October in the construction industry and in the West region. The rate increased significantly in October only in retail trade. Over the last 12 months, the job openings rate (not seasonally adjusted) rose significantly only in the federal government (to 2.5 percent). The rate fell over the year for total nonfarm and total private as well as in most industries, including construction; durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; information; finance and insurance; professional and business services; health care and social assistance; accommodation and food services; other services; and state and local government. The job openings rate also fell significantly over the year in three of the four regions -Northeast, South, and West.
Hires
The hires rate decreased in October to 3.0 percent due to small declines in the rate for several industries.Only accommodation and food services experienced a significant decrease in the hires rate in October; no industry or region experienced a significant increase in the hires rate in October. Over the past 12 months, the hires rate did not increase significantly in any industry or region but decreased for total nonfarm and total private and in several industries, including durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; finance and insurance; professional and business services; accommodation and food services; and state and local government. The hires rate dropped significantly over the past 12 months in three of the four regions - Midwest, South, and West.
Separations
The total separations, or turnover, rate ticked upward to 3.1 percent in October, but the change was not statistically significant. Between October 2007 and October 2008, the total separations rate decreased significantly due to a decline in quits, the largest component of total separations.
The quits rate can serve as a barometer of workers’ ability to change jobs. Although the quits rate was unchanged in October for total nonfarm, the rate has remained at 1.6 percent for three months - a low point last seen in January 2004. Comparing October 2008 to October 2007, the quits rate was significantly lower for total nonfarm and total private and in many industries, including nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; finance and insurance; professional and business services; accommodation and food services; other services; and state and local government. The quits rate also fell over the year in three of the four regions - Northeast, South, and West. The quits rate rose significantly over the past 12 months only in the mining industry.
The other two components of total separations -layoffs and discharges, and other separations - are not seasonally adjusted. In October, the layoffs and discharges rate (1.4 percent) and level (1.9 million) were little changed from a year earlier. Although essentially unchanged at the total nonfarm level, the layoffs and discharges rate increased between October 2007 and October 2008 in construction; durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods manufacturing; and information. The layoffs and discharges rate declined over the year in finance and insurance and in professional and business services. The other separations rate (0.2 percent) and level (273,000) were essentially unchanged from a year earlier at the total nonfarm level.
The total separations rate is driven by the relative contribution of its three components (quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations), with quits contributing the largest portion. The percentage of total separations attributable to quits has varied over time. The proportion of total separations due to quits (seasonally adjusted) rose from a post-recession low of 50 percent in December 2003 to a high of 61 percent in December 2006 before trending downward again. Quits accounted for only 51 percent of total separations in October 2008, down five percentage points in 2008 as quits decreased and layoffs increased.
