Although the month-to-month changes in job openings, hires, and turnover data are often small, the trends over time are notable. The job openings rate remained essentially flat from August 2006 through September 2007, followed by a downward trend through September 2008. The hires rate rose in August and September after trending downward from July 2006 through July 2008. Although the rise in the hires rate in September was significant, the rate remains low at a level last seen in 2004. After holding steady for three months, the separations rate declined to 3.0 percent in September to the lowest point since August 2003.
Job Openings
The job openings rate was little changed in September 2008 but has been trending downward over the last 12 months. At 2.3 percent in September, the job openings rate was at the lowest level since April 2004. Although the job openings rate was little changed at the total nonfarm and total private levels, the rate decreased significantly in September in the manufacturing and retail trade industries.
Throughout the history of the series, three industries consistently have had higher job openings rates than the other industries, although
the gap has recently decreased: education and health services (3.3 percent in September), professional and business services (3.1 percent), and accommodation and food services (3.0 percent).
Over the last 12 months, the job openings rate (not seasonally adjusted) rose significantly only in the federal government (to 1.9 percent). The rate fell over the year for total nonfarm and total private as well as in most industries, including durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; information; finance and insurance; professional and business services; health care and social assistance; and accommodation and food services. The job openings rate also fell over the year in three of the four regions - Midwest, South, and West.
Hires
The hires rate rose in September to 3.2 percent. The increase at the total nonfarm and total private level was due to small rises in the hires rate for several industries rather than a significant increase in any particular industry. No industry or region experienced a significant over-the-month change in the hires rate in September. As occurs nearly every month, the seasonally adjusted hires rate was highest in accommodation and food services (5.8 percent) and lowest in state and local government (1.4 percent).
Over the past 12 months, the hires rate did not increase significantly in any industry or region but decreased in a few industries, including durable goods manufacturing; wholesale trade; and federal government. Regionally, the hires rate dropped significantly over the past 12 months in the South.
Separations
The total separations, or turnover, rate fell to 3.0 percent in September due to declines in the rates in professional and business services and in education and health services. Over the past 12 months, the separations rate rose significantly in wholesale trade and in state and local government; the rate fell in natural resources and mining; nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; health care and social assistance; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and federal government. Regionally, the separations rate dropped significantly over the past 12 months in the South. As often occurs, the seasonally adjusted separations rate was highest in September in accommodation and food services (5.5 percent) and lowest in state and local government (1.2 percent).
Total separations include quits (voluntary separations), layoffs and discharges (involuntary separations), and other separations
(including retirements). The quits rate, which can serve as a barometer of workers’ ability to change jobs, was little changed in September for total nonfarm (1.5 percent). Although the one-month change in the quits rate was not significant, the decline in the past two months puts the rate at the lowest point since August 2003. The quits rate changed significantly in September only in the construction industry and in the South region, declining for both. As has occurred every month since the series began in December 2000, the seasonally adjusted quits rate was highest in the accommodation and food services industry (3.8 percent) and lowest in state and local government (0.6 percent). From September 2007 to September 2008, the quits rate fell for total nonfarm and total private and in many industries, including natural resources and mining; nondurable goods manufacturing; finance and insurance; professional and business services; health care and social assistance; other services; and federal government. The quits rate also fell over the year in three of the four regions - Northeast, South, and West. The quits rate did not rise significantly over the past 12 months in any industry or region.
The other two components of total separations - layoffs and discharges, and other separations - are not seasonally adjusted. In September, the layoffs and discharges rate (1.4 percent) and level (1.9 million) were little changed from a year earlier. The layoffs and discharges rate was highest in arts, entertainment, and recreation (4.5 percent) and lowest in federal government (0.2 percent). The other separations rate (0.2 percent) and level (296,000) were essentially unchanged from a year earlier at the total nonfarm level.
The total separations rate is driven by the relative contribution of its three components (quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations), with quits contributing the largest portion. The percentage of total separations attributable to quits has varied over time. The proportion of total separations due to quits (seasonally adjusted) rose from a post-recession low of 50 percent in December 2003 to a high of 61 percent in December 2006 before trending downward again. Quits accounted for only 52 percent of total separations in September 2008, down considerably in 2008 as quits decreased and layoffs increased.
Flows in the Labor Market
Several industries consistently have high rates of both hires and separations. These include construction; retail trade; professional and business services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and accommodation and food services. In the 12 months ending in September 2008, these 5 industries produced 31.2 million hires and 31.3 million separations, accounting for 58 percent of total nonfarm hires and 59 percent of total nonfarm separations while comprising only 39 percent of total nonfarm employment.
