Economic research firm e-forecasting.com released two important economic indicators, both highlighting strong economic times ahead for the US economy.


e-forecasting.com’s eLEI, a US real-time leading economic indicator, soared in May by 1.1 percent to a reading of 112.8 (2000=100), following a 0.2 percent advance in April. eLEI is released the first business day of each month providing results of the previous month and historically forecasts one quarter ahead GDP more accurately than the Conference Board and OECD’s leading indicators.

e-forecasting.com released their first estimate of May’s monthly GDP. This flash estimate shows a 5.2 advance, following a 1.4 increase in April. The firm’s monthly GDP series is statistically standardized to quarterly GDP figures compiled by the Department of Commerce. Figures are released with one-month lag, compared with the conventional wait for quarterly figures to be released.

“There are no signs of recession in the short-term horizon according to May’s jump in the leading index. This is also consistent with what we have seen with our monthly state leading indicator reports, as witness by the California leading indicator’s advance this month after 12 month of stagnation.” CEO Maria Simos wrote in an update to clients. “Despite the current slowdown in growth with real GDP edging up at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, the economy is poised to reach trend growth in the second half of the year. May’s reading also statistically suggests that the probability of an upcoming US recession declined to the lowest level in nearly two years.”