There has been no shortage of analysts who have warned of the past half year that the US economy is headed for a recession and soon. The economy wasn't in recession in the third quarter, not with nearly 4 percent annualized growth in real GDP.

The consumer sector is not leading the rest of the economy into recession, not with 166,000 new jobs in October. GDP growth isn't that strong in the fourth quarter. Job growth won't be that high in November and December. But economic and job growth are unlikely to quickly and sharply deteriorate. Perhaps the pessimists will stop talking about the recession of 2007. Of course, they will probably start talking about the recession of 2008?

Wednesday, November 7

8:30am Productivity and Costs (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

In a quarter of strong economic growth, productivity probably rose about 2.5 percent, just as it did in an equally strong second quarter. Both growth and productivity change will be slower in the fourth quarter.

Friday, November 9

8:30am U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services, September 2007 (Bureau of the Census)

Export growth likely remained strong in September. Unless, there was a surge in imports, that probably means the trade deficit narrowed slightly in the month. Expect more of the same in October and November.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK

The domestic economy is likely getting slower productivity and economic growth in the fourth quarter than in the third. Job growth too is likely to be a little slower — back to 100,000 new jobs a month. But oil is getting ever more expensive, and very likely to have spill over effects on prices of other goods. And the stock markets showed in early November that all the financial fireworks were not exploded in August. With the holiday season now just around the corner, there is enough consumer spending power to result in an OK but a great season. The post-holiday period is also shaping up to be OK. But questions about inflation and potential interest-rate hikes are likely to replace questions about how many mortgage defaults will develop. In short, there is more good economic news right now than bad, the housing slump notwithstanding. The post-holiday news isn't likely to be cheerful but neither is it likely to all bad.